The changes shaping 2026

At the time, several developments were mentioned that were already known to be set for 2025. We knew that shipping lines would adjust their networks through new alliances, that Donald Trump would become President of the United States, and that the global container ship fleet had grown by 10%, with that additional capacity being absorbed by the crisis in the Red Sea.

This led to the following conclusion: “If no new unexpected events occur and the crisis in the Red Sea continues unchanged, we will see a development in 2025 in which the balance between supply and demand continues to tip towards well-filled vessels but not at the high level seen in 2024.”

Unforeseen events in an unstable world

That is largely what has happened. Figures from January to October 2025 show that the global freight index stands at 81. This is lower than in 2024 (96), comparable to 2023, and clearly higher than the pre-pandemic level in 2019 (67).

There were also uncertainties that could have an impact on 2025. With the introduction of new alliance networks, it was expected that spot rates would temporarily decline, as shipping lines would focus primarily on restructuring their networks rather than on last-minute blank sailings. That expectation proved correct: early in the year, spot rates fell sharply. For example, the SCFI spot rate from Asia to Northern Europe dropped from around USD 3,000 per TEU to approximately USD 1,200 per TEU, before rising again.

The expectation was that the new networks would deliver improved punctuality and that the Gemini Alliance would achieve 90% reliability at the main ports. Both objectives were met, and the 90% threshold was reached even earlier than anticipated.

In 2025, there was little hope of the reopening of the Red Sea, and unfortunately that did not happen.

There were also unexpected developments. For example, it was not anticipated that the US trade war would unfold in such an unstable and unpredictable manner. Nor had anyone expected India and Pakistan to come close to war again, or Thailand and Cambodia to become involved in a genuine border conflict. These events caused disruptions to supply chains.

Factors that could influence the year ahead

What can we expect as we look ahead to 2026? Once again, there are both known and uncertain factors. We know that the EU ETS charge on CO₂ emissions in shipping will increase from 70% in 2025 to 100% in 2026. In addition, the IMO Net Zero Framework, which would in effect amount to a global CO₂ levy, was not introduced in 2025. Decision-making has been postponed and will continue through further negotiations, which are expected to conclude in October 2026.

We know that approximately 1.6 million TEU of additional vessel capacity will be added, although this figure may vary slightly if deliveries are delayed. This represents growth of around 5% and is significantly lower than the volume of new tonnage expected in 2027 and 2028.

In addition, there are major uncertainties. The US trade war is difficult to predict tariffs change frequently, are announced with little warning, and affect different countries and products each time. The announced port charges for Chinese vessels, as well as China’s countermeasures, have also been postponed until November 2026.

The trade war led to a sharp decline in freight volumes to the United States in 2025, while most other trade lanes showed growth. For 2026, the picture is less clear. If the trade war continues, it will keep US imports under pressure. At the same time, inventories in the US could be drawn down as a result, potentially triggering a new round of restocking at a later stage. Such a catch-up effect could cause a sudden but temporary increase in both freight volumes and spot rates. This scenario, however, depends on whether US consumer spending remains at the 2025 level.

The crisis in the Red Sea finally appears to have a genuine chance of ending in 2026. From an operational perspective, a return via the Suez Canal would be most logical in the second half of February or in March, as this would best limit bottlenecks. Regardless of the timing chosen, such a shift would inevitably cause significant disruptions, particularly in European ports.

How the market responds in a year of change

As these factors continue to evolve throughout 2026, they will lead to pronounced volatility in cargo flows. Shipping lines will attempt to adjust their networks and capacity accordingly, but the speed and scale of these changes are difficult to keep pace with. As a result, spot rates in 2026 are likely to be highly volatile and at times move abruptly.

While the underlying trend is likely to remain downward, particularly if the route via the Suez Canal reopens, this trend may be temporarily overshadowed by unexpected spikes and dips in volumes and capacity. This could result in clear but temporary increases in freight rates.

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