2025 has started on a positive note. The announced strike among dockworkers on the East Coast of the US has been called off, and with it, the feared issues for supply chains have also been averted for the time being.
The American dockworkers' unions have reached an agreement with the largest employers after months of negotiations. This agreement primarily focuses on the use of new technology in the ports. Although the exact details of the collective labour agreement are not yet known, and the long-term costs remain unclear, it marks a promising start to 2025.
Strong growth on the main routes
The global container markets experienced significant growth in 2024. According to Container Trade Statistics (CTS), global freight volumes in November 2024 increased by 5.3% compared to the same month in 2023. Over the period January to November 2024, the growth even reached 6.0%.
This growth is primarily driven by the routes between Asia and Europe, as well as those to North America. Freight volumes from Asia to Europe grew by 8%, while the route to North America recorded an impressive increase of 15%. The latest figures for November show growth of 10% and 13%, respectively. There are no indications that this positive trend is slowing down, further strengthening expectations for the new year.
New alliances and geopolitical challenges – what does this mean for 2025?
From February 2025, changes in collaborations between shipping lines will be implemented. Gemini Cooperation, Premier Alliance, and an independently operating MSC are introducing new liner networks. These restructurings bring more diversity to the services offered than has been seen in years, which is viewed as a positive development.
Challenges remain, however. The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, now in its 14th month, shows little sign of resolution. Although the number of attacks on merchant vessels has significantly decreased – with no attacks reported for over a month at the time of writing – this is mainly because vulnerable ships are now rerouting via the southern tip of Africa. Meanwhile, the Houthis are targeting US naval ships and carrying out missile and drone attacks on Israel. A swift reopening of the route through the Suez Canal therefore seems unlikely.
The current absence of attacks on merchant vessels should not be seen as a sign that large container ships will soon resume using the route through the Suez Canal.
Meanwhile, spot rates on the routes from Asia to Europe and North America are declining. This seasonal drop is typical after the peak around Chinese New Year (29 January 2025). However, the introduction of new liner networks adds complexity to the situation. How shipping lines prioritize their commercial and operational strategies will determine whether market pressures ease by the end of the first quarter.
Shippers should prepare for a strong peak season in the summer of 2025. The necessity to reroute ships around Africa could play to the advantage of the shipping lines during this peak season.
Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade tariffs
The biggest unpredictable factor in 2025 is Donald Trump’s return as President of the United States on 20 January. If he swiftly imposes high import tariffs, it could trigger a domino effect on the global container market.
A rapid implementation of trade tariffs could prompt US importers to stockpile goods en masse. This would temporarily drive-up freight volumes and spot rates. Subsequently, a slowdown in US consumption, driven by rising inflation, could lead to overstocked warehouses and declining orders. This would result in a sharp drop in volumes and rates.
When consumer spending picks up again later, importers will abruptly place new orders, triggering another surge in freight volumes and spot rates. If Trump announces tariffs quickly, this pattern could unfold: a sharp increase in spring and summer 2025, a steep decline in the second half of the year, and a recovery in the summer of 2026.
With strong growth, geopolitical challenges, and uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs, 2025 promises to be a dynamic year for the container market.