Could a solution for Hormuz lead to new challenges?

It is quite possible that this will happen, but there is no certainty. Even if both parties announce an agreement, shipping lines operating in the region are likely to view this with a degree of caution.

Container shipping lines are likely to prioritise moving vessels out of the Persian Gulf. At the same time, they will initially be cautious about allowing vessels to enter again. The question is whether the agreement will hold, or whether they once again risk vessels becoming “stuck” in the Gulf.

If the agreement holds, the situation is expected to gradually normalise over the course of two to three months. Vessels will need to be phased back into their original sailing schedules step by step. In addition, large volumes of full containers that have remained in the wrong locations will still need to be shipped. Many empty containers will also need to be repositioned back into global container flows.

The return to Suez will be crucial 

For global container trade, the key question is how quickly an agreement could lead to normalisation in the Red Sea and a return to the Suez route. The Houthis announced a ceasefire in September 2025, but it was not until January 2026 that shipping lines cautiously began choosing the Suez route again. That recovery process came to an abrupt halt when the crisis around Hormuz broke out.

At that point, normalisation was expected during the low season after Chinese New Year. From an operational perspective, that would have been the most favourable time to avoid bottlenecks as much as possible.

If we follow the same reasoning now, a gradual return should only begin after the peak season, from around September onwards.

However, there is another complicating factor that could potentially accelerate the process while at the same time increasing the risk of bottlenecks: the very strong market at present.

Demand continues to support the market

The latest data from Container Trade Statistics shows that freight volumes from Asia to Europe increased by 12.3% in April 2026 compared with April 2025. On the trans-Pacific route, growth also stood at 11.3%.

Freight volume data is always published with some delay, but market conditions indicate that strong demand continued through June. This has led to sharp increases in spot rates.

In the first week of June, the SCFI spot rate index for Asia–North Europe rose to USD 2,605/TEU. This put the level twice as high as in February and even above last year’s peak season high.

A similar trend can be seen on the trans-Pacific route. SCFI rates to the US West Coast have now reached USD 4,552/FFE, more than double the level seen in February. However, they have not yet reached last year’s peak season highs, when rates rose exceptionally sharply because of the trade war between the US and China.

The global container market is currently facing capacity constraints. These are being caused on the one hand by very strong demand in key markets and, on the other, by the continued absorption of capacity as vessels sail via South Africa due to the crisis in the Red Sea.

Normalisation may come at a price 

However, the strong market and high freight rates could prompt shipping lines to return to the Suez route relatively quickly once they are able to do so. This would allow them to benefit from the high rates in the short term, as additional capacity would be released to carry more cargo.

But such an approach would inevitably also mean that the peak season comes to an earlier end. At the same time, it could mark the beginning of operational bottlenecks in Europe, as supply chains are shortened by several weeks.

The conclusion is that a genuine end to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could also mark the beginning of normalisation in the Red Sea. This would undoubtedly be positive. For shippers, however, it would mean more uncertainty and volatility in the short term, both operationally and in terms of freight rates.

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