Global freight patterns are changing course

The latest figures from Container Trade Statistics (CTS) cover all container cargo loaded onto ships in July. Overall, global volumes increased by 5.1% compared with July last year. However, when the data is broken down into cargo to and from the US versus the rest of the world, a different picture emerges: North America-related volumes fell by 0.4%, while the rest of the world experienced growth of 7.1%.

The dividing line became apparent back in April, when the US launched its global trade war. Over the period from April through July (since the start of the conflict), North America-related volumes fell by 2.3%, while the rest of the world recorded growth of 6.7%. This represents an exceptionally strong increase outside North America and is significantly higher than had been anticipated at the beginning of 2025.

Declining freight volumes in the US are upsetting the global balance.

It is important to emphasize that the period from April through July, to which these figures relate, largely fell within a phase in which the trade war was partially on hold. The full implementation of the global trade war did not occur until August and is therefore not yet reflected in these figures. As a result, a further downward trend in US container volumes can be expected in the coming months.

Shipping lines are now responding to the persistently weak volumes by increasingly cancelling sailings, and it is likely that this number will rise further in the coming weeks. A recent example is the Gemini Alliance: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd initially announced three cancellations on their TP9/WB6 service across the Pacific but have now decided to suspend the entire service for the fourth quarter of 2025. Shippers would be wise to anticipate more such announcements.

New tariffs are forcing a change of course.

In addition to the issues surrounding import tariffs, the new USTR duties in the US will come into effect on 14 October. These duties, known as the so-called “million-dollar duties,” apply to Chinese-built, -owned, or -operated vessels each time they call at a US port. Most shipping lines are now restructuring their fleets, replacing Chinese vessels in their networks with other units to reduce costs. A concrete example of this is the adjustment made by the Premier Alliance on one of their shuttle services, ensuring that Chinese ships no longer need to call at US ports.

CMA-CGM has announced that it will not implement an additional surcharge in response to these duties. Ultimately, however, market dynamics will determine whether the duties lead to higher freight rates. In a strong market, rising costs will inevitably be reflected in higher rates whether presented as a surcharge or not. In a weak market, by contrast, such an increase will not be feasible.

COSCO and OOCL face a major challenge regarding the USTR duties. As Chinese operators, they must pay the surcharge on all their vessels, regardless of where they were built. Moreover, the level of the duty is four times higher than for non-Chinese shipping lines. According to an estimate by HSBC, this will cost the two carriers around USD 1.5 billion per year combined. Shippers should therefore anticipate changes to certain sailings by COSCO and OOCL, and consequently to sailings sold via the Ocean Alliance through CMA CGM and Evergreen. It is likely that the carriers will increasingly route cargo through ports in Mexico and Canada, limiting calls at US ports. Another option is to make greater use of transshipment in the Caribbean.

The MEPC, the International Maritime Organization’s responsible for environmental regulations, will meet again in mid-October. A key item on the agenda is the formal approval of the proposed CO₂ levy on marine fuels, which had already secured majority support in April 2025. If adopted, the measure will take effect in 2028 and is expected to help drive the decarbonisation of global shipping towards 2050.

The bottleneck is that the US is not only opposed to the proposal but is now also openly threatening countries that intend to vote in favor. Such a vote could result in US sanctions, for example in the form of higher import duties or visa restrictions. It remains unclear to what extent this pressure will prevent a majority from forming in October.

Should the unlikely scenario occur that the proposal is not adopted, it could pose a significant obstacle to the greening of global shipping. It would not only cast doubt on investments in green vessels, but also on the economic viability of investments in facilities to produce green fuels. This could considerably delay the entire decarbonisation process.

Litigation and political pressure are creating uncertainty.

The final aspect ties in with the US trade war. The US Supreme Court has decided to hear the appeal concerning whether certain import tariffs violate the Constitution. Although the case is being fast-tracked, a ruling is unlikely before spring 2026. Until then, US importers remain obliged to pay their duties.

If the Supreme Court upholds the previous rulings, this could result in a massive refund claim for wrongly collected import duties. The sums involved could run into hundreds of billions of USD, placing enormous pressure on the US customs system. Importers would therefore be wise to prepare for this scenario now, ensure their documentation is complete, and strictly adhere to all deadlines for submitting complaints and objections.

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