Road transport market update

Economic development

Transport market development

Supply & Demand: Capacity & Rate Index

• The Transporeon Capacity Index for the european market dropped to 93.6 points in December 2025, marking the second-lowest value in 2025 and a 5.5 percent decline year on year. In January 2026, the index dropped further to 90.4 points, highlighting a severe capacity shortage.
• The Spot and Contract Rate Index both increased in December 2025, with the Spot Index rising to 146.1 points (+ 4.3% YoY) and the Contract Index reaching 130.7 points (+ 4.1% YoY). In January 2026, the Spot Index fell but is still at a high level, while the Contract Index went up slightly.

European Truck Toll Changes expected during H1 2026

Inflation rate

Inflation held near 2.7% in December, still above the Fed target but not re-accelerating; PPI rising faster than CPI suggests businesses are absorbing some cost pressure.

Core inflation (ex-energy, food, alcohol, tobacco):

• U.S.: ~2.7% YoY
• Canada: ~2.5% YoY
• Mexico: ~4.3% YoY

Market Developments

U.S. economy remains sluggish but not recessive, with 2025 GDP growth appearing solid but distorted by volatile trade flows and tariff impacts.

Trade policy uncertainty has driven unusual swings in imports and exports, complicating historical comparisons and business planning.

Labor market shows signs of stagnation: unemployment dipped to 4.4%, but job growth slowed sharply, reflecting a “low hire, low fire” environment.

Consumers outperformed expectations during the holiday season, driving strong retail sales and rapid inventory drawdowns.

Overall macro-outlook tilts modestly optimistic, though policy uncertainty remains a key headwind.

Consumer Price Index

• U.S.: ~2.7% YoY in December 2025; monthly CPI gains ~0.2%–0.4% during Q4
• Canada: 2.4% YoY in December (up from 2.2% in November)
• Mexico: ~3.7% YoY at year-end; monthly increases moderated in Q4
• South America: Wide dispersion — low single-digit inflation in Chile/Peru vs. elevated inflation in Argentina and Bolivia

We forecast U.S. crude oil production will remain close to the 2025 average on an annual basis in 2026 before falling by 340,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2027. Although there were 13% fewer rigs drilling for oil in the United States at the end of 2025 than there were at the beginning of the year—according to Baker Hughes—production reached a record high last year as rising well-level productivity outweighed this drop. Over the next two years, we expect sustained lower crude oil prices will result in a pullback in drilling and completion activity that is enough to outweigh ongoing increases in productivity.

Economic development

• GDP growth is moderating, easing from ~4.5% in 2024–25 to ~4.1% in 2026. Growth remains uneven, with India and parts of Southeast Asia (e.g. Vietnam, Philippines) outperforming, while North Asia and Singapore see slower momentum.
• Inflation has cooled but not normalized, leaving fuel, labor, compliance, and financing costs structurally higher than pre-2020 levels.

Market Update

• Thailand floods (Nov 2025): short-term, localized disruption; operations normalized.
• Thailand–Cambodia border: policy-driven disruption; geopolitical risk persists.
• Intra-Asia trucking: lead times stable but lane-specific; buffers increasingly used

Road tolls/regulations

Malaysia has tightened enforcement on lorry overloading, introducing zero tolerance with nationwide inspections and stricter weight-limit checks.

Penalties have increased, including heavy fines, vehicle seizure, and license suspension for repeat offenders, raising compliance risks for operators.

Stricter load planning and documentation are now essential, with enforcement expected to remain sustained rather than temporary.

_{Source:
1) ©IMF, 2025 World Economic Outlook (October 2025) - Real GDP growth
2) World bank Group Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) | Data}

Economic development

GDP: Growth remains uneven across MEA, with GCC economies outperforming South Africa despite a gradual recovery.

Inflation: Inflationary pressures have moderated, though price levels remain elevated across the region.

Road tolls / Regulations etc.

Regulatory changes across MEA are increasing operational complexity and cost pressures, particularly for cross-border road freight.

_{Sources:  NAMRA Namibia Revenue, ATCUAE Ass of Transport Companies, MOTLS Ministry of Transport and Logistics Services, DoT ZA Department of Transport}

Market Developments / Challenges / Trends

• Demand remains strong in construction, retail, e-commerce, and healthcare distribution, supporting consistent road freight activity, particularly in Saudi Arabia
• Specialised transport, including temperature-controlled freight, continues to gain traction across Middle East corridors
• Security risks and infrastructure constraints in South Africa continue to add cost and operational complexity
• Customers across the region increasingly prioritise reliability, compliance, and visibility over purely price-driven solutions

• Capacity remains tight in specialised and peak-demand segments, particularly for long-haul and controlled cargo
• Fleet efficiency initiatives, including the introduction of electric vehicles in South Africa, are gaining momentum

Global demand for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) continues to accelerate, with China showing particularly strong momentum. In the first half of 2025, electric heavy trucks reached a 22% market share in China. Adoption varies significantly by country, largely influenced by government subsidies, zero‑emission regulations, and tax policies. Competition is intensifying as both established and emerging OEMs expand into new regions. This increased activity is reshaping market dynamics and increases competition.

Vehicle performance is advancing, especially in driving range. New models now offer up to 600 km, enabling more operational use cases. Megawatt Charging System (MCS) infrastructure is emerging, currently limited but expanding. As availability grows, it will support faster charging, improving uptime and operational efficiency for heavy‑duty electric fleets.

Customers continue to ask for the same thing: clarity, reliability, and a logistics partner who can simplify operations in an increasingly complex market. At DSV, we are expanding exactly that. One connected road network that offers control, confidence, and a consistent experience for every shipment, from groupage to direct.