The market is positioning itself for a closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz appears, in practice, to be developing into a semi-permanent situation for the shipping sector
This does not mean that it is a desirable situation, perhaps with the exception of the Iranian government, but at present it is difficult to imagine a swift return to the situation that existed before the conflict.
Over the past two months, there have been two occasions when an opening appeared to be within reach.
The first occurred on 8 April, when a ceasefire prompted Iran to temporarily declare the Strait open. Around forty vessels then weighed anchor almost immediately and began their outbound voyage from the Persian Gulf. Within 24 hours, however, Iran reversed course, several of these vessels were attacked, and the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed again.
A similar pattern was seen around the US Project Freedom on 4 May, under which passage under military escort was offered. As far as is known, only two vessels managed to sail out under US protection, after which the US halted the project after less than two days.
During the conflict, we have seen a small number of container vessels leave the Persian Gulf, but not without risk. Over the past month, Iran has attacked and seized two MSC vessels, and recently attacked a CMA CGM container ship, injuring eight seafarers on board.
The repeated temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is further eroding confidence
Viewed from the shipping lines’ perspective, the conclusion is therefore clear: the Strait is effectively closed. Moreover, we have now seen twice that passage was announced as possible again, only for that announcement to be withdrawn within one to two days.
This means that, should one or both warring parties announce again that passage has reopened, shipping lines will approach such a statement with considerable scepticism. They are likely to choose first to move vessels out of the Persian Gulf and then wait for some time to assess the situation before considering sending ships back into the Gulf.
Global container volumes fell by 2.4% in March, according to the latest figures from Container Trade Statistics (CTS). This marks a sharp decline compared with the past two years, when growth rates typically ranged between 5% and 8%.
However, this sudden decline does not point to a global economic downturn. The cause should instead be found in the combination of the US trade war and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
As far as the United States is concerned, we have seen a sustained decline in freight volumes since the start of the trade war in April 2025. In March 2026, volumes loaded for North America fell by 8.4%, while export cargo from the US declined by 3.5%.
For imports, this represents a decline on a par with the steepest drops seen in May and August 2025. As for exports, it marks the first contraction since May 2025.
MEISC is dragging down global volumes
The overarching CTS data does not provide separate figures for the Persian Gulf but covers the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent under the MEISC category. In March, this region saw a 25.6% decline in import cargo and a 28.9% decline in export cargo.
This is, of course, a direct consequence of the booking suspension that shipping lines introduced at an early stage of the crisis, and which is now clearly visible in the figures. For the coming months, we should expect further substantial declines, although probably not at the same level. Shipping lines have now reopened bookings, but at significantly higher rates and with restrictions on inland routes from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.
When global container volumes are measured excluding North America and MEISC, growth in March 2026 was 5.4%.
This means that global container trade remains resilient, despite the ongoing crises.
Limited impact on the global container market
The development of freight rates following the outbreak of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has been relatively moderate. In the initial phase, shipping lines attempted to implement a series of substantial surcharges and rate increases as quickly as possible. This was partly successful, but the increases remain limited compared with the impact of the Red Sea crisis in 2024.
The main exception is, of course, rates to and from the Persian Gulf. For example, the SCFI spot rate from Shanghai to Dubai has quadrupled since the start of the crisis.
In essence, the figures show that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is having a major regional impact, while its effect on the global container market remains relatively limited.
We can hope that the crisis will be resolved quickly. However, shippers would be well advised to prepare for a more realistic scenario in which this situation could persist for months, or even years.
Should that prove to be the case, we must consider a broader domino effect, with high energy prices potentially acting as a drag on global consumption.
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