Welcome to...
The global edition of our Road Transport Market Update.
This year DSV marks its 50th anniversary. In this edition we reflect both the company’s origins in road transport and its development alongside the market.
The first section presents regional market developments across our four regions. The second section focuses on how rising cost pressure is reshaping road freight, influencing pricing, capacity and operations.
Regional updates
50 years of keeping the world connected
In 2026, DSV marks its 50th anniversary. Since being established in 1976, the company has grown from a small group of Danish hauliers into one of the world’s leading transport and logistics companies. From DSV’s origin in Danish road transport, the business has developed over time through a series of mergers and acquisitions that have expanded both its scale and service offering. Today, DSV operates as a global network across road, air, sea and solutions, building on the foundation established from the very beginning. The journey reflects a pragmatic approach to growth and a strong focus on execution. Cornerstones that continue to shape how DSV operates and supports customers across increasingly complex supply chains.
Reaching 50 years is an important milestone to us, but the focus is on what comes next. As global trade evolves, DSV continues to develop its network, capabilities and solutions to support future transport needs.
Rising cost pressure is reshaping the global road freight market
Road freight is moving into a different phase. Not because demand has collapsed, but because cost pressure has become structural.
Change in underlying economics of road freight
Across fuel, labour, regulation and key operational inputs, pressure has been building to a point where it is now reshaping how the market behaves. The impact is increasingly visible across pricing, capacity and operator viability. What is emerging is not a temporary imbalance, but a change in the underlying economics of road freight.
Sources: IRU, industry reporting
Fuel costs reset pricing behaviour
Fuel has become a central factor in reshaping freight pricing across Europe
According to the IRU’s latest benchmark, European contract freight rates reached 140.1 index points in Q1 2026, up 8.9% year on year, while spot rates weakened. The divergence underlines a shift in price formation: pricing is increasingly driven by cost recovery rather than demand.
EU diesel prices rose by 26% within a single quarter, from €1.56 per litre at the end of 2025 to €1.96 by Q1 2026. By early April, average prices across the EU were close to €2.08 per litre, with peaks above €2.30 in several major markets.
Tight capacities and driver shortages reshape the market
Structural capacity constraints continue to limit flexibility in the market
The IRU estimates that 12.1% of driver positions in Europe remain unfilled, turning labour shortages into a persistent feature rather than a cyclical challenge. Fleet renewal is also slowing. New truck registrations fell by approximately 6% in 2025, as operators postponed investments amid high financing costs and regulatory uncertainty.
While we in Q1 2026 see a positive trend vs. a weak 2025, it still needs to be seen if this carries on for the rest of the year.
For many carriers, fleet expansion or renewal has become a risk decision rather than a growth strategy - gradually tightening capacity even where freight volumes remain relatively stable.
Sources: IRU, ACEA
The market is entering a new phase where cost pressures are overtaking demand as the primary driver
Thomas Larrieu, CEO of Upply, on structural shift in freight pricing
Source: IRU
AdBlue emerges as a new vulnerability
Beyond fuel, AdBlue has become an increasingly critical operational input.
AdBlue is mandatory for modern Euro VI trucks yet supply risks have intensified following geopolitical developments and disruptions in energy and urea markets. Global urea prices rose by around 57% year on year, while AdBlue prices in Europe increased by 20-25% within weeks in early 2026. In extreme cases, shortages can have immediate operational consequences. Without AdBlue, trucks cannot legally operate, exposing road freight networks to a vulnerability that few operators had previously priced in.
Sources: Worldports, IRU
Regulatory pressure adds to the cost base
Regulatory costs are rising across Europe as governments expand CO2 based toll systems and infrastructure
In Poland, road tolls increased by 33% in early 2026, reflecting a broader shift towards higher user‑paid transport costs. In Germany and other large markets, industry reporting indicates that toll‑related expenses have doubled in some cases, adding further strain. Particularly for smaller carriers with limited pricing power.
Sources: IRU, Trans.info
Insolvencies signal structural adjustment
The combines effect of fuel, labour, finance and regulation is reflected in insolvency figures.
After 190,449 corporate insolvencies were recorded in Western Europe in 2024 (+12.2% year on year), the upward trend has continued into 2025. Global insolvencies are expected to rise by a further 5-6%, with several European markets still reporting elevated failure rates.
Transport and logistics remain among the most exposed sectors, with insolvency levels in 2025 continuing to sit above other industries across key markets such as Germany. Rather than a short‑term correction, rising insolvencies point to a deeper market adjustment, gradually accelerating consolidation.
Sources: Creditreform, Allianz Trade, Atradius, Trans.info
A gradual reset, not a shock
None of these pressures are new in isolation. What is different is how strongly they now compound.
Costs are rising across fuel, labour, regulation and critical inputs. Capacity is constrained by labour shortages and slower fleet renewal. The result is not an abrupt break, but a gradual reset of how road freight capacity is priced, financed and sustained.
What the next phase looks like
Looking ahead, upward pressure on road freight costs is expected to persist, even if broader economic growth remains modest
Road transport is becoming a more cost‑sensitive and strategically critical component of supply chains. For shippers and logistics decision‑makers, the challenge is less about short‑term disruption and more about adapting to a market that is less elastic, more expensive and harder to absorb when conditions change.
Source: IRU
Inflation & Cost Pressure
Inflation has re-accelerated mainly through energy:
Euro Area inflation rose to 3.0% in April, with energy inflation at 10.9%, while underlying inflation excluding energy and food eased to 2.2%
Sources: Eurostat
Road market dynamics
Capacity is fragile despite softer volumes:
Q1 2026 reflected continued uncertainty across European road freight, with demand remaining soft. While early signs of stabilization appeared towards the end of the quarter, tighter spot availability on selected corridors indicates lane-specific pressure rather than a broad recovery. Driver shortages, carrier selectivity and higher fuel/toll costs continue to limit capacity flexibility.
Europe Capacity Q1 2026 Snapshot
Q1 2026 Signal |
Road Europe implication |
Source |
| Q1 freight offers +41% y/y, listed truck capacity -7% y/y | Stronger demand for available trucks; spot capacity tighter on active corridors. | TIMOCOM Transport Barometer |
| Barometer tracks freight offers vs. available vehicle space across European road transport routes | Relevant capacity-demand indicator for European road freight | TIMOCOM methodology |
| EU truck registrations +10.7% in Q1 2026; heavy trucks +12.6% | Fleet renewal has improved from 2025 lows, but this does not immediately remove capacity constraints. | ACEA |
| German truck toll mileage -0.3% m/m in March and -0.6% y/y | Core market activity remains muted; no clear broad-based demand surge. | Destatis / BALM |
| Q1 contract index rise from 136.9 to 140.1, spot index drop from 135.1 to 132.3; 2026 outlook is "modest upwards pressure" driven by fuel and demand | Rate pressure was already building before Q1 diesel / energy shock | IRU / Upply / Ti Q4 benchmark |
| Europe had 440,000 vacant truck driver positions in 2025 | Structural labour shortage continues to limit flexible capacity | IRU driver shortage |
Cost Pressure
Diesel Price development
Diesel is the key short-term cost driver: EU diesel prices (incl. taxes) rose 20.7% m/m and 21.1% y/y in March; IRU reported EU average diesel at around EUR 2.02/litre on 29 April. Several EU countries have introduced temporary fuel-tax relief, (including Spain, Italy, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Austria, Czechia, Cyprus, Lithuania and Romania), partly cushioning pump prices but creating country-specific cost differences and cross-border refueling effects
Source: Eurostat
BAF pressure in Europe
Short-sea and ferry-linked road flows also face significant increases in marine bunker fuel (BAF) due to the increased oil prices, which further increases the overall cost of transportation on many European corridors.
Road Tolls
Road tolls are becoming a larger part of total operating cost: EU road charging rules increasingly link truck tolls to emissions, with heavy-duty vehicle charges varying by CO₂ performance and, from 2026, also reflecting external air-pollution costs
Source: European Commission
Several markets already increased truck tolls in Q1 2026, while further step-changes are expected from 1 July in the Netherlands, Flanders, Hungary and Romania. Impact is increasingly lane-specific and depends on routing, vehicle weight, Euro class and CO₂ emission class.
European truck toll changes: H2 2026
Timing: 07/2026
New kilometre-based truck toll starts 1 Jul 2026. Applies to trucks >3.5ton almost all motorways and selected provincial/municipal roads; Eurovignette ends in the Netherlands. Rates depend on vehicle weight and CO₂ class.
Source: RDW
CO₂ surcharge added to the Flemish kilometer charge from 1 Jul 2026. All users must register the vehicle’s CO₂ emission class before implementation.
Source: Viapass
Hungarian toll road network to be extended from 1 Jul 2026, in addition to the Jan/Mar rate increases already implemented.
Source: Hu-Go
Romania is expected to move from vignette-based charging to a kilometre-based TollRo system for vehicles >3.5t from 1 Jul 2026. Relevant mainly for CEE / Balkan road flows.
Source: trans.info
Impact on road transport in Europe
Working-capital pressure is increasingly affecting capacity.
Diesel, BAF, tolls and regulatory costs continues to rise and are often paid upfront, while customer payments and surcharge recovery often lag behind.
This puts particular strain on smaller hauliers, which increases the risks of further market exits, and reducing capacity and flexibility on certain lanes and markets.
European road freight is not facing a broad capacity crises, but a period of elevated cost volatility. As a result, shippers should expect structurally higher cost levels for European road transportation.
This puts particular strain on smaller hauliers, which increases the risks of further market exits, and reducing capacity and flexibility on certain lanes and markets.
European road freight is not facing a broad capacity crises, but a period of elevated cost volatility. As a result, shippers should expect structurally higher cost levels for European road transportation.
Economic development
The U.S. economy in early 2026 shows slow but steady growth, supported by continued consumer demand despite increasing volatility linked to trade policy changes. Tariff uncertainty is causing fluctuations in import and export flows, making planning conditions more difficult for businesses, even as the U.S. trade deficit has narrowed.
The labour market is showing signs of stagnation, characterised by a low‑hire, low‑fire environment. Job growth is slowing while unemployment remains close to 4.4%. Overall, the outlook for 2026 remains cautiously optimistic - sluggish rather than recessionary - supported by AI‑related investment across several industries but constrained by ongoing policy uncertainty, including election‑year dynamics and pending Supreme Court decisions.
Market developments / inflation rates
Inflation trends vary across the Americas but continue to impact road transport cost structures: In Canada, headline inflation accelerated to 2.4% in March 2026, up from 1.8% in February, reaching its highest level in a year. The increase reflects early economic effects linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In the United States, price dynamics shifted noticeably in early 2026. Inflation rose to 3.3% in March, its highest level since mid‑2024, after remaining at 2.4% in January and February. The reversal reflects renewed pressure from external shocks and energy‑market volatility following several months of easing inflation.
In Mexico, headline inflation is expected to end 2026 at approximately 3.8–4.0%, remaining above the central bank’s 3% target.
Key risk factors include volatile energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, sticky services inflation, and rising logistics, labour and insurance costs.
Brazil’s economy in 2026 shows moderate but resilient growth, supported by domestic consumption and services. Inflation has eased to around 4.1%, signaling reduced price pressure overall, although short‑term volatility persists and the macroeconomic environment remains sensitive.
In Chile, inflation slowed sharply to 2.8% in January and 2.4% in February 2026, nearing the central bank’s 3% target. This trend reversed in April, with a 0.96% monthly increase, driven largely by rising fuel costs linked to Middle East disruptions.
Transport capacity & fuel prices
U.S. crude oil production is expected to remain near the 2025 record level of approximately 13.6 million barrels per day through 2026, before declining by around 2% to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2027. Record output levels in 2025 were driven by efficiency gains, despite a roughly 13% decline in active drilling rigs.
Looking ahead, sustained lower oil prices are projected to lead to a slowdown in drilling activity that is expected to outweigh productivity improvements over time, adding uncertainty to medium‑term fuel supply and pricing conditions. Diesel fuel prices across the region continue to reflect volatility linked to global energy markets and geopolitical developments.
Road tolls & regulation
No major new road‑specific toll or regulatory initiatives were introduced across the Americas during the period.However, broader trade policy uncertainty and political decision‑making continue to influence cost development and investment planning, particularly for cross‑border transport flows.
Regional market takeaway
Across the Americas, road transport markets are characterised by steady demand alongside heightened cost volatility, where fuel, inflation dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to influence pricing and capacity decisions.
Economic Context
- Growth moderates but remains solid: Asia slows from 5.0% → 4.4% → 4.2% (2025–2027), with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) steady at ~4.5–4.7%
- Shift in growth drivers: India (~6.5%) and Vietnam (~7%) lead, while China eases (5.0% → 4.4% → 4.0%), Korea (1.0% → 1.9% → 2.1%),
- Implication for road demand: Intra-Asia flows stay supported (ASEAN/India), but softer China and advanced economies may temper export-driven volumes.
Source: IMF
Road market dynamics - capacity and fuel
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Fuel: upward pressure and volatility – diesel-driven cost increases (incl. fuel crises) continue to push operating costs higher. Fuel prices increase ranges from flat to +180% based on varying government subsidies in APAC. Absence of a harmonized, neutral APAC fuel Index requires a local, country specific commercial approach.
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Capacity: uneven, tightening overall. Tight in cross-border SEA and fuel-impacted markets, structurally constrained in India; but overcapacity persists in the China domestic market.
Key market developments and challenges
Congestion and backlog at major borders post Thailand’s Songkran holiday period extend transit times by up to +3-4 days in mid-April. Backlog has eased by May.
Hari Raya holiday in Malaysia with severe driver shortage leading to structural capacity constraints.
Gradual “Air-to-Road” transport mode shift visible in the market.
Cross border trucking demand remain elevated due to shipment pull-forward in anticipation of fuel rate increases.
Fuel cost relief is expected to lag, with pressure expected to persist for another 4–8 weeks.
Hari Raya holiday in Malaysia with severe driver shortage leading to structural capacity constraints.
Gradual “Air-to-Road” transport mode shift visible in the market.
Cross border trucking demand remain elevated due to shipment pull-forward in anticipation of fuel rate increases.
Fuel cost relief is expected to lag, with pressure expected to persist for another 4–8 weeks.
Road tolls and regulatory landscape
Malaysia-Singapore border at Tanjung Kupang is affected by limited inspection capacity causing 3-4 hours’ inspection delays, effectively reducing asset utilization, leading to temporary higher operating costs.
Source: NST
Regional market takeaway
In some APAC countries, rising fuel costs significantly affect trucking capacity and operational costs.
Truck owners are taking firm stance to perform shipments only when fuel surcharges are committed to be paid.
Customers are advised to plan earlier and anticipate for temporarily higher transport costs to secure trucking capacity.
Truck owners are taking firm stance to perform shipments only when fuel surcharges are committed to be paid.
Customers are advised to plan earlier and anticipate for temporarily higher transport costs to secure trucking capacity.
Economic context
Activity across MEA remains mixed, but the GCC market continues to perform relatively well, especially in Saudi Arabia and the UAE where construction, retail and infrastructure activity are still supporting transport demand.
South Africa continues to recover gradually, although inflationary pressure, security concerns and infrastructure challenges are still impacting operating costs.
Customers remain cautious with spending in some sectors, but road freight demand is still stable overall, particularly for retail, healthcare, FMCG and project related cargo.
Sources: WB World Bank, IMF, StatsSA, DSV Internal Market Feedback Regional Operations & Country Management Input
Road market dynamics – capacity and fuel
Road freight capacity across Middle East is currently operating under strain and tightening rapidly, driven by a massive influx of cargo diverted from disrupted maritime and air corridors. Cross border movements are taking longer in certain areas due to congestion at alternative ports and increased customs activity linked to the Middle East situation.
GCC fuel costs are splitting sharply as deregulated UAE fuel prices surge over 50%, while neighbouring economies remain strictly insulated by government-imposed price caps. Volatility remains a concern for operators across the region.
Border movements between GCC countries stay operational, although certain corridors are experiencing delays and additional planning is often required.
Sources: DMRE, MOEI, DSV ME Conflict Update DSV Middle East Conflict Customer Communication Apr 2026
Key market developments and challenges
The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to place pressure on regional supply chains, particularly around contingency routing, port congestion and inland transport planning.
Customers are increasingly asking for flexibility, visibility and contingency planning rather than only focusing on transport cost.
Security risks, infrastructure limitations and compliance requirements in parts of Africa continue to create operational complexity for road operators.
Specialised transport solutions, particularly temperature controlled and high value cargo movements, continue to grow across the Middle East market.
Sources: UNCTAD, World Bank, DSV Country Management Customer & Market Observations
Road tolls and regulatory landscape
Regulatory requirements across MEA continue to increase, especially for cross border road freight and customs related compliance.
South Africa continues to see increased enforcement around permits, road compliance and cargo security requirements.
GCC customs and dangerous goods controls remain strict, particularly where alternative routing and contingency ports are being used.
Sources: DoT ZA, ZATCA Zakat, FCA UAE, DSV Compliance & Cross Border Operations Teams Regional Regulatory Feedback
Impact on Road transport in Middle East and Africa
Road freight operations across MEA remain stable overall, but regional unrest, congestion and regulatory pressure are increasing the need for forward planning and flexible routing solutions.
Customers should continue allowing additional lead time for cross border and contingency movements.
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