Air Update

Air Freight Pulse

Global Market Insights: What Happened in the First Half 2025

Global Air Freight Learnings from H1 2025

The first half of 2025 has seen notable shifts in the global air freight landscape. A change in U.S. leadership is reshaping trade policies, creating ripple effects across procurement strategies, capacity planning, and cost structures. In this edition of Air Freight Pulse, DSV provides a detailed analysis of the evolving market conditions—including economic indicators, regulatory updates, rate developments, and technological advancements. We also examine the growing influence of environmental and sustainability initiatives, which continue to reshape the transport and logistics industry.

Global Air Freight Learnings from H1 2025 Read more

Freight being loaded onto an airplane at night

Air Index

Global Trends

The DSV Air Index reveals a dynamic and evolving market. In Q4 2024, Transatlantic Westbound rates surged due to capacity cuts and pre-stocking ahead of a potential ILA strike. Eastbound routes remained stable due to trade imbalances. Asia outbound rates increased steadily through 2024 and began to level off in early 2025.

Freight standing next to an airplane ready to be loaded

Regional Breakdown

Americas
- Stable outbound capacity.
- Freighter activity focused on perishables (e.g., flowers from Colombia).

EMEA
- Transatlantic belly capacity increasing with summer schedules.
- Freighter capacity being reallocated due to tariff impacts.

APAC
- Asia outbound is the only region showing YoY growth.
- High-value tech shipments (AI-related) driving demand.

Capacity

Global airfreight capacity has grown by 3% YoY, primarily driven by increased freighter utilization. The flower trade from Colombia and Kenya has significantly contributed to this growth, especially around Valentine’s Day. However, a decline in charter activity from China and Hong Kong has been observed post-holiday season, reflecting the impact of U.S. policy changes. Belly capacity is expected to rise with summer schedules, particularly on Transatlantic routes, while freighter airlines may shift focus to underserved markets in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Subcontinent.

Capacity growth in 2025 is expected to be limited, with the existing freighter fleet used fully.

Ryan Keyrouse, CEO, Rotate

Fuel Index

Jet fuel prices remained stable in 2024 but began rising in early 2025, reaching $2.30–$2.35/gal. The outlook remains flat through summer unless disrupted by geopolitical events. Brent crude is expected to rise to $75/barrel in Q3 2025 and average $68 in 2026. Fun Fact: A Boeing 747-400 freighter burns ~20,000 gallons more than a 777-200 on a transatlantic flight — costing ~$45,000 more per round trip.

Fuel Index Read more

White pieplines running through a grass landscape

Sustainability

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is phasing out free allowances, with 100% of emissions counted by 2026. This will increase operational costs for airlines and may lead to higher fares. Airlines are incentivized to invest in SAF, fuel-efficient aircraft, and carbon offsetting. Implications include competitive pressure on EU carriers, reinvestment of ETS revenue in green aviation, and alignment with global climate goals such as CORSIA.