Could an end to the Hormuz crisis create new challenges

Could an end to the Hormuz crisis create new challenges

The situation related to the Strait of Hormuz is essentially changing day by day. At the time of writing this update, there are rumors of a possible deal.

This might happen, or it might not. Seen from the perspective of commercial container shipping, even a firm announcement of a deal will likely be met with a degree of caution from the shipping lines.

Container lines are likely to favor getting more vessels out of the Persian Gulf but be more hesitant in moving them into the Persian Gulf should an opening prove short- lived and trap more vessels inside the Gulf.

If a deal holds, we might then see a gradual reversal to normality over a period of some 2 - 3 months. Getting back to normal is not just related to phasing vessels schedules back to their pre - crisis Gulf routings. It is also a matter of moving both delayed/stuck full containers as well as repositioning large amounts of empty containers.

The return to Suez will be crucial

Of greater importance to the global supply/demand balance in container shipping is the question, how quickly this will result in the normalization of the Red Sea and a reversal to Suez- routings. In September 2025, the Houthis announced a ceasefire in their partial blockage of the Red Sea, but we only began to see a gradual normalization from January 2026. This was then fully reversed at the outbreak of the Hormuz crisis.

At the time, the carriers were clearly aiming at a transition to normality in the low season after Chinese New Year, as operationally this would be the best timing.

If we are to contemplate the best timing now, it would be after the summer peak season – i.e., a return to Suez routing beginning in September.

The complicating factor here is the very strong market conditions we are currently seeing.

Strong demand continues to support the market

The latest demand data from Container Trade Statistics shows Asia - Europe grow 12.3% year - on- year for cargo loaded in April, and on the Pacific trade a year’s worth of decline shifted to 11.3% growth.

This strength appears to have continued into June, resulting in sharp upwards momentum in freight rates. In the first week of June, we saw the SCFI spot rate index reach 2605 USD/TEU for Asia - N.Europe, essentially doubling since February and markedly above the peak season rates seen last year.

We see a similar development in the Pacific, where USWC rates in the beginning of June reached 4552 USD/FFE, more than doubling the rate since February. This is not quite as high as peak season last year, but the Pacific at that time was subjected to an ex treme spike driven by the US trade war.

All in all, the current market is quite tight in terms of capacity availability driven by continued strength in demand in the major global trades combined with the capacity still being absorbed by the Red Sea crisis.

Normalization may come at a cost

But it is also this strength in the current market, which could tempt some carriers to revert earlier to the Red Sea should conditions suddenly shift. It would then be an attempt to capitalize on the currently strong market conditions as a reversal to Suez would de- facto also release added capacity to inject into the strong trades.

Of course, such a course of action would inevitably lead to an earlier end to the peak season, as well as initiate the domino effect of congestion problems in especially European ports when the supply chains get shortened by a couple of weeks.

The bottom line is that, if we are fortunate to see an end to the Hormuz crisis, this also becomes the trigger for a normalization of the Red Sea crisis. This would be indisputably good news. But a short - term consequence will be more market volatility, and shippers will have to navigate a quite complex set of operational changes and disruptions