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NOVEMBER 2025

Market stabilisation, new tolls and ETS expansion is approaching and DSV’s electric truck fleet now exceeds 400 vehicles.

Road transport market update

In this update…

Every quarter, we bring you the essential trends and shifts shaping road transport across Europe. 

In this update, you’ll find fresh insights on economic developments, transport capacity, and fuel prices, plus a look at sector bankruptcies, DSV’s evolving electric fleet, and upcoming changes to road tolls and emissions trading. Stay informed and get ahead with the trends that matter most for your business.

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Topics covered in this update include

General economic development: Euro area

Source: Eurostat

Transport capacity and fuel prices

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  • Capacity index

    Increased slightly to 95.9 in October 2025, up from 93.6 in Q3 2025 and nearly unchanged year-on-year (96.0 in October 2024), indicating continued but gradually easing capacity constraints.

  • Diesel price

    Decreased to €1,552.66 in October 2025, down from €1,557.41 in Q3 2025 and from approximately €1,600 in October 2024, reflecting a positive trend for the industry with both quarterly and year-on-year cost reductions.

Source: Transporeon Market Monitor (Subscription required), EC Oil Bulletin

Bankruptcies in the European transport sector

Examples from European countries

  • Germany

    Germany’s transport and logistics sector has the highest relative bankruptcy rate among all industries.
    Source: europa.eu

  • France

    A severe liquidity crisis has led to 645 transport company bankruptcies in Q2 2025 with 10 closures daily, according to Union TLF.
    Source: trans.info

  • Poland

    Poland is facing its deepest transport crisis in 25 years, with small and medium-sized carriers most affected.
    Source: trans.info

  • Denmark

    44 Danish transport firms went bankrupt in May 2025, nearly double the number from May 2024, making it one of the hardest-hit sectors nationally.
    Source: europa.eu

  • Belgium

    Belgium recorded 724 bankruptcies in transport and warehousing in 2024, surpassing previous record year.
    Source: trans.info

Key factors driving insolvencies

Road toll developments across Europe and ETS exspansion

Bulgaria

Apr/Sep 2025:Two-step toll increase in 2025 (+10% in April, +10% in September). Rates now based on weight and emission class, up to 0.42 BGN/km for large trucks.
More info: bgtoll.bg

Austria

Exp. Jan 2026 :The Austrian ministry proposes an increase of 7.7 % in tolls for 2026, based on the vehicle category. No official confirmation yet, and 2026 rates are not published.
More info: trans.info

The Netherlands

Jul 2026: Kilometre-based toll for heavy goods vehicles starts 1 July 2026. Applies to highways and selected regional roads, with rates varying by emission class. Eurovignette ends 30 June 2026.
More info: trucktol.nl

Note: Road taxes or similar imposed by governments impacts the total transportation cost, and are beyond the control of DSV.  Please be advised inflationary road toll increases are expected across several European countries as of January 1st, 2026. At this stage, specific details have not yet been confirmed.

  • Stricter VECTO Classes to Raise Tolls

    A second update to the CO₂ emission classes in the VECTO system will take effect on July 1, 2026. The new, stricter criteria mean that many truck models will no longer qualify for the more favorable classes with discounts. As a result, some trucks may move to higher emission categories, leading to higher toll rates for hauliers.

    More info: europa.eu

  • Final ETS expansion

    Starting January 2026, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) will require shipping companies to offset 100% of their verified greenhouse gas emissions with emission allowances. These costs, which include charges for CO₂ and other greenhouse gases, will continue to be passed on to customers and adjusted monthly based on ferry usage and actual emissions.

    For more info see our Sustainability Explainer video on ETS here.

One of Europe’s largest heavy-duty electric fleet

DSV operates one of the largest fleet of heavy-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe, with more than 400 trucks already in service across multiple countries and a target of 2,000 by 2030.

Decarbonise anywhere

DSV’s Indirect Reduction solution enables immediate climate action, in regions with limited or no access to sustainable fuels or BEV infrastructure. Built on the Book & Claim model, it allows for the purchase of audited CO₂ reductions generated within DSV’s own road operations, independent of physical location.

Read more about DSV’s Indirect Reductions

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