Global Transport and Logistics

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A Turbulent turn of 2024 and 2025 in logistics

Monitoring and forecasting external conditions are fundamental to logistics. Experts at DSV – Global Transport and Logistics have analyzed the factors that will significantly impact global, European, and domestic supply chains, as well as the direction of the sector’s development. Changes in logistics will influence other industries, including trade and product pricing policies. Both consumers and businesses will feel the effects of these shifts, making it crucial to understand the evolving landscape of the TSL (Transport, Shipping, Logistics) market.

Ciężarówki na drodze

Road Transport

In road transport, a decline in available fleets is currently observed. Comparing data from the second and third quarters of 2023 to the same period in 2024 shows a 7% reduction in truck availability. This decline stems from carriers scaling back operations and fleet sizes due to adverse economic conditions. A marked slowdown in activity and order volumes is particularly evident in the Eurozone.

The TSL industry is also grappling with rising operational costs. In the coming year, higher expenditures will be allocated to leasing, vehicle maintenance, and insurance, which, according to the report "Cost Developments in Road Transport Including Intermodal Transport 2024-2025", will increase by 5.9% in 2025. The report also highlights anticipated wage increases for drivers, estimated at 5.42%.

Transport companies will additionally face rising road tolls. The EU’s Eurovignette directive mandates CO2 emissions-based tolls. Starting January 1, 2025, Denmark will impose tolls on vehicles over 12 tons across 10,900 km of roads. In Poland, from November 1, 2024, the network of national roads subject to electronic tolling (e-tolls) expanded from 3,620 km to 5,200 km.

The sector will continue to seek greater operational efficiency. According to Eurostat, in the first half of 2024, empty truck runs accounted for 20% of all truck kilometers.

“To address this, DSV is developing fixed groupage lines for exports and imports, enabling vehicles to operate on regular routes and maximize transport capacity. For example, on the Poland-Sweden-Poland route, double-deck vehicles fueled by environmentally friendly HVO are utilized. Such solutions, combined with close collaboration between logistics operators and clients in designing and executing supply chains, help improve efficiency in road transport,” says Paweł Ledwoń, Senior Key Account Manager, DSV.

Achieving sustainability goals will also be critical for the sector. Electrification of fleets and popularization of biofuels are key measures to reduce CO2 emissions and, over time, lower operational costs. The extent of these savings will depend on greenhouse gas emissions under the principle: "The one to emit, is the one to pay."

Warehousing Logistics

The fourth quarter marks the peak season for warehousing operations. Order volumes reach record levels due to preparations for Christmas and globally popular promotional events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

“To handle the surge in orders, DSV diversifies its courier subcontractors. By distributing shipments across various courier companies, deliveries reach their destinations quickly. Diversification ensures that even if one subcontractor experiences issues, most packages will still be delivered on time,” explains Oskar Błaszkowski, Distribution Manager, DSV.

Currently, the courier services market is experiencing a significant increase in transported volumes, which translates into higher delivery costs. Some couriers now charge fees for excess package weight, while others are introducing "capacity surcharges" for the space occupied by shipments. Further rate increases are anticipated.

Sustainability remains a priority for the coming year. Reusable shipping packaging, which significantly reduces waste, is expected to gain traction. Zero-emission vehicles, including not only electric cars but also drones, robots, bicycles, and scooters, will see broader use. In particular the latter two vehicle types will aid couriers in same-day delivery services in cities.

DSV – Global Transport and Logistics

DSV provides comprehensive road transport, air and sea freight, and warehousing services for partners in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, healthcare, automotive, electronics, telecommunications, FMCG, retail, white goods, beauty, chemicals, and eCommerce. In Poland, DSV operates 19 facilities covering a total area of 320,000 m², including a warehouse equipped with an AutoStore system. The operator manages a pan-European network of groupage connections, supported domestically by 19 terminals providing international and domestic transport services.

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