From sprint to marathon – e-Commerce at a crossroads

The pandemic period has triggered a number of trends that have significantly supported the extremely dynamic development of the contract logistics sector in Poland. Among them, it is worth noting the diversification of supply chains, the reorganisation of inventories, changes in European consumer habits and the spread of the online shopping model.

After the boom of 2020-21, the pace of e-Commerce market growth has returned to pre-pandemic levels - albeit with a significantly higher volume base and a more demanding operational profile. It is estimated that the industry will close 2025 with 8-10 per cent organic growth.

It is worth taking a close look at the online commerce sector, as it reflects the priorities across the entire economy like a lens. Companies are focusing on improving operating profitability, seeking opportunities to optimise processes and costs at every stage of the value chain. This is necessary in order to meet the challenges associated with rising operating costs and to remain competitive with new players form Asia – points out Oskar Błaszkowski, Distribution Manager, DSV – Global Transport and Logistics.  

With the end of the sprint phase, the sector moved on to the actual long-distance stage. The marathon requires a new strategic approach and different rules for assessing business priorities.

The optimisation race

The strategies adopted by companies vary. Some are analysing the possibility of withdrawing free services, such as free returns. Others are considering launching new digital sales channels by introducing their offerings on marketplace platforms, building their own online shops or social commerce, which involves fragmentation of volume and greater diversity of order profiles. The ways of courting consumers have changed – but the battle continues.

Today’s market expects flexibility and adaptation to the business model chosen by the customer, taking into account its simultaneous development across multiple channels. It is also important to use technology and plan logistics based on data analysis and algorithms.

Leaders in the TSL industry, including DSV, are investing in capabilities related to forecasting demand and identifying volume peaks. Although the conclusions drawn from the figures primarily affect the organisation of warehouse work, they ultimately also have an impact on courier operators and the planning of road transport between logistics centres – says Oskar Błaszkowski, DSV – Global Transport and Logistics. – The redesign of loading and unloading processes in line with the time-window model is a prime example of this, as is the dynamic management of transport resources to reduce instances where vehicles are not filled to the appropriate level with shipments.

These factors translate into changes in the requirements imposed on the logistics industry, as well as complexity of the process of designing and planning logistics operations. All market participants strive to increase efficiency and improve quality in their supply chains and to shorten delivery times, while seeking a balance between cost, predictability and delivery times.

2026: new rules of e-Commerce

One of the key changes that will take place in 2026, for both the TSL sector and its customers, will be entry into force of regulations protecting the European Union market from mass imports of goods from countries where manufacturers do not have to bear the costs of complying with strict environmental standards.

Changes in customs policy will be a key tool in this regard. For the e-Commerce industry, the abolition of the de minimis rule and the introduction of the obligation to pay customs duty and VAT on the smallest shipments from Asian countries will be crucial. This is likely to result in longer delivery times for orders from the Far East, which may convince Europeans to use domestic platforms. It is worth noting that delivery time is a very important factor in the purchasing decisions-making process – points out Oskar Błaszkowski.

Although the prices of European products are likely to remain higher, the new approach could provide enormous support for European companies. The application of new tariffs to the smallest shipments will lead to a massive increase in customs and tax controls at sea and air ports, which may cause significant congestion in the initial period, given the volume involved. This will mean greater unpredictability for consumers. Especially in the initial phase of implementation of the new rules, when the risk of lead time instability will be the greatest.  Europeans using Asian e-Commerce platforms will be exposed to significantly longer waiting times for their orders to be fulfilled. Meanwhile, consumers have already become accustomed to fast delivers, completed within a few working days.

In this new reality, the winners will be those who combine local fulfilment in Europe, the ability to scale quickly and serve multiple sales channels with a cost-effective operating model for which supply chain management costs are critically important. Although their offering may be nominally more expensive, they will gain an undeniable advantage thanks to the certainty and speed of delivery that consumers expect. The key question is how quickly global platforms will adapt to the new regulations remains open – some of them have already begun investing in building fulfilment capabilities within the European Union. Cooperation with a logistics operator experienced in handling e-Commerce channels can significantly support the exploitation of the full potential associated with the upcoming changes.